Recession arbiter is sifting GDP, jobs data
By "this," Hall is referring to an opposing economic picture painted by the two most important indicators the committee uses to assess whether - and what month nber business cycle dating committee members the economy has entered a recession. But real gross domestic product has only posted one quarter of contraction so far this year. Economists' technical definition of a recession is more complicated than the conventional definition, which calls a recession two or more straight quarters of shrinking GDP. The NBER panel instead looks at jobs, manufacturing and sales data, as well as GDP, for a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.
nber indicatorsThe chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year. Similarly, during an expansion, economic activity rises substantially, spreads across the economy, and usually lasts for several years.
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business cycle since 1980
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